روند قدرتمندی جهانی چین و سیاست موازنه ای روسیه (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
روند تدریجی خیزش چین واقعیتی مهم در دهه های نخستین قرن بیست ویکم بوده و امکان جابه جایی قدرت را در آینده مطرح کرده است. به طبع پیامدهای بین المللی، منطقه ای و ملی مهمی برای دیگر قدرت های بزرگ و نیز روسیه داشته است و واکنش آن ها را به دنبال خواهد داشت. به ویژه مسئله واکنش روسیه با توجه به همسایگی با این کشور اهمیت بیشتری دارد. از این رو این پرسش ها مطرح می شود که الگوی رفتاری روسیه در قبال روند قدرتمندی چین چگونه تبیین پذیر است؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می شود که روسیه بیشتر به دنبال یک سیاست خارجی موازنه ای دو سویه با چین و غرب در یک نظام بین المللی چندقطبی است، اما به دلیل رقابت ژئواستراتژیک با غرب، سپر موشکی و گسترش ناتو در محیط منطقه ای به ویژه در مسئله اوکراین، ناگزیر به هم سویی با چین و ایجاد یک موازنه تدریجی جایگزین برآمده است. برای بررسی این ایده با روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی، داده ها و اسناد موجود و دیدگاه های صاحب نظران و با بهره گیری از نظریه جابه جایی قدرت، مسئله روند قدرتمندی چین، پیامدها برای روسیه و الگوی رفتاری آن را تحلیل می کنیم. دستاورد اصلی این نوشتار این است که وضعیت آینده سیاست بین المللی، آثار آن برای قدرت های بزرگ و نیز محیط منطقه ای ایران و به ویژه منطق رفتار قدرت های شرقی و چشم انداز آینده سیاست شرق گرای دولت جدید را به شکل روشن تری به ما نشان می دهدThe Process of China’s Global Strengthening and Russia’s Balancing Policy
Introduction: The gradual emergence of China was an important fact in the first decades of the 21st century and increased the likelihood of a change of power in the future. Naturally, it has had important international, regional and national consequences for other great powers, as well as Russia. Russia's response to the Chinese uprising is more significant given its proximity. These are the important questions for this article, how can one explain Russia's pattern of attitude towards Chinese power? The hypothesis is that although Russia sees the Chinese uprising as a threat to the future, it has to deal with it because of the security problems with the West and has pursued a multiple policy in the face of the possibility of a change of power in the international system. Russia has also welcomed the rise of China to balance Western threats but it is trying to reduce China's potential danger in the future by reaching out to the West and concluding a proper agreement. To test this hypothesis, we try to analyze the issue of China's rise and Russia's reaction by analyzing the qualitative content of existing data and documents. The main achievement of this article is that it shows us more clearly the future state of international politics, its effects on the great powers, as well as the regional atmosphere of Iran and especially the logic of the behavior of Eastern powers and the future perspective of the new Iranian president. The issue of power transfer in the international system, especially in recent years, has become an important topic in the analysis of international politics. The emergence of non-Western powers and the formation of institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS and substantive changes in the international system have led to the complexity and multi-polarity, multi-level and networking of the international system and have presented opportunities and challenges for Russian and other international actors. On the one hand, Russia's position has been fragile due to the problems caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the threats in its strategic environment, the attempt to return to part of its former position and the conflict with the newly independent states. In addition, China's slow emergence in the economic sphere has been a reality in the first decades of the 21st century and has created opportunities for a transition in power in the coming decades. This is an issue that will pose significant challenges for the United States and the great powers, as well as Russia. Research Question: What the authors of this article are looking for is Russia's response to the major power shifts in its neighborhood and the question of how Russia will react to the Chinese uprising, and in fact, how can the Kremlin's pattern of behavior be explained? Research Hypothesis: The authors of the article have hypothesized that despite China's threat from Russia's perspective, further cooperation with China is inevitable due to its current problems with the West, such as deployment of missile shields, NATO expansion and interference in its internal affairs. Moscow, therefore, has pursued a multifaceted policy toward the possibility of shifting power in the international system and in order to balance Western threats, is now welcoming the rise of China. At the same time, in an effort to build good relations with the West and reach an appropriate agreement, these measures will reduce China's potential dangers in the future. Methodology (and Theoretical Framework if there are): To examine the hypothesis of the article, we have tried to analyze the variables of the hypothesis and the relationships between them by analyzing the qualitative content of data and documents available in websites of research centers, libraries and the views of international policy experts. We have used the "power shift theory" to test the article hypothesis. Of course, we have tried to take a thoughtful look at an analytical model to examine Russia's reactions to China's growing power. To test the paper hypothesis, we choose the power transfer theory and the analytical model of the reaction of other great powers, then we come to three modes, which are: First, accepting the new situation and accompanying the emerging power. Second, not accepting the status quo and trying to achieve a new status quo; Third, unstable behaviors, acceptance and then protest and attempts to rebuild power. Results and Discussion: To begin the discussion, we first present the background of the research, then the theoretical foundations of the transfer of power and the reaction of governments, and in the next section we discuss the emergence of China and the possibility of transfer of power to achieve a result. In the following, we will discuss China’s impact on Russia's security and regional environment, and then Russia's policies and actions towards China. Finally, by concluding our discussions, we show the future perspective. Conclusion: We conclude that the Russia has been sensitive to China's gradual rise for a variety of reasons and is exposed to its effects. Based on the findings of this article, it became clear that given Russia's international position, geostrategic regional proximity, China's growing role in the Central Asian region, as well as long borders, the gradual impact is strong. China is vital to Russia. Finally, as long as Russia is unable to obtain security guarantees for its national and regional security environment from the West, it will have to abandon its favorable balancing policy between China and the West and work strategically with China to balance the West. Of course, this will not be a good strategy for Russia and does not correspond to the realistic and pragmatic logic of the political culture of the Russian governments.
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