بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده مسکن در کلان شهر تبریز (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی وضعیت شاخص های کمی و کیفی مسکن و شناسایی عوامل کلیدی و تأثیرگذار بر آینده این بخش در کلان شهر تبریز می باشد. روش تحقیق حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی بوده و توصیف روند تکاملی شاخص های کمی و کیفی مسکن در 40 سال گذشته و تحلیل عوامل موثر بر وضعیت آینده این بخش منجر شده است که پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ روش تحقیق، توصیفی- تحلیلی باشد. به منظور گردآوری داده از سالنامه های آماری، سرشماری های ادوار مختلف و روش پویش محیطی و جهت تحلیل داده ها و تعیین عوامل کلیدی از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ساختاری با نرم افزار MICMAC بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد طی دوره 1395-1355 اغلب شاخص های کمی و کیفی مسکن در کلان شهر تبریز بهبودیافته است. همین طور با روش پویش محیطی 61 عامل در پنج حوزه که بیشترین تأثیر را بر وضعیت آینده مسکن در کلان شهر تبریز دارند انتخاب گردید که از میان عوامل مذکور با استفاده از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ساختاری 11 عامل کلیدی که بیشترین نقش را در وضعیت آینده مسکن کلان شهر تبریز دارند استخراج شدند که عبارت اند از: رشد اقتصادی، تورم، درآمد و پس انداز خانوار، قیمت زمین و مسکن، تحریم، تحولات نرخ ارز، تسهیلات بانکی، نرخ بیکاری، تحولات سیاسی، قدرت خرید و شیوه مدیریت. از میان 11 عامل فوق، عوامل اقتصادی با سهم 82 درصدی بیشترین سهم را داشته و عوامل سیاسی- مدیریتی با سهم 18 درصدی در مرتبه بعدی قرار دارند. لذا بهبود وضعیت مسکن در کلان شهر تبریز تا حد بسیاری در گرو بهبود شرایط اقتصادی می باشد.Survey the factors affecting the future situation of housing in the Tabriz metropolis
The current research aims to investigate the status of quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing and to identify the key and influencing factors on the future of this sector in the Tabriz metropolis. The current research method is practical in terms of its purpose, and the description of the evolutionary process of quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in the last 40 years and the analysis of factors affecting the future state of this sector have led to the fact that the current research is descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. To collect data from statistical yearbooks, censuses of different periods and the environmental survey method, and to analyze the data and determine the key factors, the interaction/structural effects analysis method with MICMAC software was used. The results of the research show that from 1976 to 2016, most of the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in the metropolis of Tabriz have improved. In the same way, 61 factors in five areas that have the greatest influence on the future state of housing in the municipality of Tabriz were selected using the method of environmental scanning. Among the mentioned factors, using the mutual/structural effects analysis method, 11 key factors that play the most significant role in the future state of housing in the metropolis were selected. Tabriz has been extracted, which includes: economic growth, inflation, household income and savings, land and housing prices, sanctions, exchange rate changes, banking facilities, unemployment rate, political changes, purchasing power and management style. Among the above 11 factors, economic factors have the largest share with 82% share and political-management factors are the next with 18% share. Therefore, the improvement of the housing situation in the metropolis of Tabriz depends to a large extent on the improvement of the economic conditions. Extended Abstract Introduction Housing as a heterogeneous, durable, immovable, capital consumer with side effects has a significant role in employment and value-added of countries. Therefore, the foresight of this important economic sector to identify critical indicators affecting the housing situation, provide adequate and affordable housing, adapt it to household needs, and prevent capital wastage are the main priorities of planning and policy-making in the field of housing. In recent years, Tabriz metropolis has experienced many problems in the field of housing, including the lack of housing units, rising prices, lack of proper quality and non-compliance of housing with household needs. Therefore, foresight and recognizing the indicators affecting the housing situation are among the needs of housing planning and management, especially in metropolitan areas, which have always been involved in the problem of housing shortage. The present study aims to determine the indicators affecting the future of housing in Tabriz using a prospective approach to inform policy makers and housing planners of these influential factors. Thus, considering the importance of future study in the present research, we intend to find out: -What is the situation of quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in the metropolis of Tabriz in recent decades? -What are the effective and influential factors in the future of the housing situation in Tabriz metropolis? Methodology The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and research method. In order to collect data, statistical yearbooks, censuses of different periods, and environmental scanning methods have been used. The environmental scanning was done through a group of experts, so the first 40 specialists and experts in the field of urban housing (professors of geography and urban planning, housing and urban planning experts and consulting engineers) were selected, then during the meetings (in the form of meetings, private meetings and interviews), the steps of research process and extracting their opinions were performed. In the next step, specialists and experts were asked to judge the relationships between the research variables as well as the opinions of other members of the group. Finally, after extracting the opinions and monitoring the variables, 61 factors in 5 areas were selected as factors affecting the housing future situation in Tabriz metropolis. Then using the Cross-structural impacts analysis method with MICMAC software, the relationships between the factors were investigated and the key and influential factors on the housing future situation in Tabriz metropolis were identified. Results and discussion In relation to the quality condition of housing, all indicators indicate an improvement in the trend in the last 40 years, and the only indicator of the ownership, despite the increase in the number of owner households, shows a decrease in the percentage of owners and an increase in the percentage of tenants. According to the data of the last 40 years, among the 12 indicators affecting the quantitative and qualitative status of housing, Tabriz metropolis in five indicators, the ratio of household growth to the housing unit, the density of people per residential unit, the density of people per room, building materials and facilities and equipment is in a better condition than urban areas of the province and Iran, in four indicators of household density per residential unit, average room per residential unit, number of housing with an area of 80-200 meters and housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years have a worse situation than urban areas of the province and Iran. In three indicators of the average room for each household, the households’ density per room and the form of housing ownership have an intermediate position compared to urban areas of the province and Iran. Finally, among the 61 factors affecting the future housing situation in Tabriz metropolis, ten key factors (Economic growth, Inflation, Income and savings, Price of land and housing, Sanctions, Currency changes, Bank facilities, Unemployment rate, Political changes and Purchasing power) affecting the future of housing situation in Tabriz metropolis has been identified. Also, the factor of housing market management style as the eleventh factor, according to experts, after the above factors, is recognized as one of the most important factors affecting the future status of the housing. Conclusion According to the results of the research, among the 5 main economic, social, physical, environmental and managerial-political areas affecting the future state of housing in Tabriz metropolis, most of the key and influencing factors on the future state of housing are located in the economic field. So that among the 11 indicators that have the most direct and indirect impact on the housing future situation in the metropolis of Tabriz, nine factors are in the category of economic ones and two other factors are in the category of managerial-political ones. Therefore, the future state of the housing in Tabriz metropolis depends more than anything on economic factors. Actually, the economic index with a long-distance is at the highest level, political-managerial, social, and physical indicators are in almost the same position in the next rank and finally, the environmental index is in the lowest level of impact on the housing future situation in Tabriz metropolis. Therefore, the economic factors with the share of 82% of the key factors are known as the most important factors affecting the housing situation, and the political-management factors with the share of 18% of the key factors are in the next order. The results of the present study can help the planners and policy makers recognize the factors affecting the housing situation and prioritize the development of variables and remind them that the housing programs and schemes may not be successful in the end in the country until the economic situation in the country improves. Therefore, in the conditions of economic growth, removing sanctions, controlling inflation and exchange rate, providing banking facilities, increasing employment and improving the income status of households and their purchasing power, along with the new way of managing the housing market, we will witness the highest level of prosperity in the housing sector of the Tabriz metropolis. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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