تدوین سناریوهای توسعه پایدار شهری بر پایه برنامه ریزی سناریومبنا (مطالعه موردی: شهر بندری ماهشهر) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
دست یابی به توسعه پایدار شهری به میزان موفقیت در برنامه ریزی های اصولی در بهره گیری از منابع انسانی و طبیعی وابسته است. برنامه ریزی سناریومبنا به عنوان یکی از راه های دستیابی و موفقیت در توسعه پایدار شهری مطرح است؛ چرا که با تبیین آینده های هر کدام از پیشران های کلیدی، مدیران و مسئولین مربوطه را برای بحران های پیش رو آماده می نماید. هدف پژوهش حاضر تدوین سناریوهای توسعه پایدار شهر بندری ماهشهر بر پایه برنامه ریزی سناریومبنا می باشد. پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ ماهیت و روش بر اساس روش های جدید علم آینده پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. جهت گردآوری داده ها و اطلاعات مورد نیاز از پرسشنامه و تکنیک دلفی و مطالعات اسنادی و کتابخانه ای بهره گیری شده است. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده های جمع آوری شده از نرم افزار های MicMac و ScenarioWizard بهره گیری استفاده شده است. یافته های پژوهش در مرحله اول بیانگر آن است که از میان 35 عامل اصلی تأثیرگذار بر توسعه پایدار شهر بندری ماهشهر، در مجموع 8 متغیر کلیدی شامل (توسعه گردشگری داخلی ( V4 ) ، طرح ها و برنامه های توسعه شهری ( V19 ) ، مدیریت کارآمد محلی ( V21 ) ، مدیریت کارآمد کلان ( V23 ) ، آموزش ( V24 ) ، شبکه ارتباطی ( V28 ) ، امنیت ( V30 ) ، موقعیت جغرافیایی بندر ماهشهر ( V33 ) " بر توسعه پایدار شهر بندری ماهشهر تأثیرگذار می باشند) در وضعیت توسعه پایدار شهر بندری ماهشهر تأثیرگذارند و بر اساس وضعیت های پیش و روی این هشت پیشران کلیدی در مجموع 26 سناریو برای آینده توسعه پایدار شهری ماهشهر به دست آمده است که با توجه به ویژگی های هر کدام از سناریوها، در سه گروه (سناریوهای مطلوب، سناریوهای ایستا و سناریوهای بحرانی) قرار گرفته اند. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر آن است که شهر بندری ماهشهر دارای پتانسیل های طبیعی و انسانی منحصربه فردی است که زمینه های دستیابی به توسعه پایدار شهری برای آن فراهم است اما پیشران های متفاوتی در فراهم نمودن زیرساخت های توسعه پایدار این شهر در آینده تأثیرگذارند که نوع برنامه ریزی و راه های دستیابی به آن می تواند مسیر موفقیت در دستیابی به توسعه پایدار شهری و دستیابی به مطلوب ترین سناریو را هموار نماید و یا بالعکس این مسیر را با چالش های بسیار روبرو نماید و بحرانی ترین سناریوی ممکن اتفاق بیفتد.Developing Policy Scenarios of Sustainable Urban Development through Scenario-based Planning (Case Study: Mahshahr Port City)
Achieving sustainable urban development depends on a successful principled approach to the management of human and natural resources. By explaining the future of each of the key drivers, scenario-based planning is considered as one of the key ways to achieve and succeed in sustainable urban development. It prepares the managers and officials for the upcoming challenges. This study aimed to develop sustainable development scenarios for Mahshahr port city in accordance with scenario planning. This current research was based on a futurology approach, analytical methods, and exploratory science to guide its purpose and nature. Documentary and library studies have been conducted to collect the required data and information, as well as using questionnaires and Delphi techniques. The MicMac and ScenarioWizard software were used to analyze the collected data. According to the preliminary findings of the research, out of 35 major factors affecting the sustainable development of Mahshahr port city, eight major variables were found, such as (Domestic tourism development (V4), urban development plans (V19), efficient local management (V21), efficient macro management (V23), education (V24), communication network (V28), security (V30), and geographic location of Mahshahr port (V33) all contribute to the sustainable development of Mahshahr port city.) Mahshahr port city is effectively developed through sustainable means. As a result of the circumstances ahead of these eight key drivers, 26 scenarios have been developed for the future of sustainable urban development in Mahshahr, which can be placed in three groups (optimal scenarios, static scenarios, and critical scenarios). According to the findings of the study, the port city of Mahshahr has unique natural and human potentials that provide an opportunity for its sustainable urban development. It is however important to note that different drivers play different roles in helping to provide sustainable public infrastructure of this city in the future, and the type of planning and how it is implemented can result in success in sustainable urban development and achieve the most desirable scenario, or on the contrary, this path can face many challenges and the most critical scenario possible can happen. Extended Abstract Introduction As one of the country's major ports, Mahshahr has an important position and strategic significance among various urban spaces. By presenting scenarios for the future development of this strategic port in our country along with an explanation of current factors influencing its development, a suitable background and cognitive context for this city's future development can be provided. It is possible to accelerate sustainable development when key drivers and favorable scenarios of Mahshahr are identified, as well as utilizing its potential, by identifying and strengthening key factors. Otherwise, Mahshahr's development process will suffer from marginal development, environmental issues, and increased migration due to the destruction of sustainable development opportunities. A key objective of the study is to answer the following question: What are the possible development scenarios for Mahshahr port city based on scenario-based planning?. Methodology As one of the country's major ports, Mahshahr has an important position and strategic significance among various urban spaces. By presenting scenarios for the future development of this strategic port in our country along with an explanation of current factors influencing its development, a suitable background and cognitive context for this city's future development can be provided. It is possible to accelerate sustainable development when key drivers and favorable scenarios of Mahshahr are identified, as well as utilizing its potential, by identifying and strengthening key factors. Otherwise, Mahshahr's development process will suffer from marginal development, environmental issues, and increased migration due to the destruction of sustainable development opportunities. A key objective of the study is to answer the following question: What are the possible development scenarios for Mahshahr port city based on scenario-based planning?. Results and discussion Among the 35 main factors contributing to Mahshahr port city's sustainable development, eight key variables have the greatest influence, including: As shown in Figure (2), these variables have the most and least impact on the future of sustainable development of Mahshahr port city, which includes factors such as domestic tourism development (V4), urban development plans (V19), a highly efficient local management system (V21), a highly efficient macro management system (V23), education (V24), communication network (V28), security (V30), and the geographic location of Mahshahr port (V33). With an emphasis on the key drivers affecting the sustainable development of Mahshahr in each scenario coupled with their similarities, 26 scenarios can generally be classified into three categories (desirable, static and critical): The first group: favorable scenarios, the realization of sustainable urban development in Mahshahr These scenarios possess the best combination of key drivers. This group consists of the first, second, and sixth scenarios, in the first scenario, all propulsors are in the desired position, but in the second scenario, the local management is effective and they are in good condition. The second group: static scenarios, gradual trend and continuation of the current situation of sustainable urban development in Mahshahr This group includes 10 scenarios (3, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14, 16, 18, 19 and 21). There are no critical propulsors in the scenarios of this group, and most propulsors are in the static state. Third group: critical scenarios, failure to achieve sustainable urban development in Mahshahr The scenarios of this group included thirteen scenarios of numbers propellant (4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 15, 17, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25 and 26). In each of the thirteen scenarios in this group there is at least one critical propellant. Over 30% of the scenarios in this group have inefficient local management, showing the importance of efficient management at the local level. Conclusion One of the most important aspects of spatial development planning is the sustainable urban development approach to enhance the quality of life of citizens and meet the needs of future citizens, which was initially focused on environmental dimensions but is now also addressing socio-cultural and economic factors. The goal of sustainable urban development is a comprehensive procedure that considers all economic, socio-cultural, and environmental factors. In order to achieve a sustainable urban development in the future, it is essential to identify the key drivers for each of the dimensions of sustainable development, as well as their impact and effectiveness. Human and natural resources must be utilized effectively by principled planners for the sustainable urban development. The idea of scenario-based planning is considered as one of the most effective ways to achieve and succeed in sustainable urban development, since it explains where each of the key drivers will go in the future so that managers and officials are prepared for the upcoming challenges. In Mahshahr port city, there are natural and human potentials that are effective in providing sustainable development infrastructure, but the type of planning and the way in which it is achieved can have different outcomes. It is considered that the scenario number one is the most desirable scenario of sustainable urban development in Mahshahr, since it provides the groundwork for growth and promotion of all key drivers based on their impact on one another. As an example, drivers (management efficiency at the local and macro levels) are two key drivers that could be managed and planned by improving these two drivers, which would create the conditions for sustainable urban development, according to the potential of Mahshahr's port city, and on the other hand, if efficient management at the local and macro levels is not used, we can expect the destruction of the potentials of this port city in the near future. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the persons for scientific consulting in this paper.
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