محمد ولی پورپاشا

The real macroeconomic instability and frequent changes in the monetary and banking regulations with financial contagion to the banks’ financial statements in the banking network of Iran cause intensified instabilities in its financial behaviors. In this paper, using statistical analysis and three-dimensional charts, we have analyzed the behavior of the financial statements of consolidated balance sheets covering the banking network of Iran. The paper also uses a non-linear estimation to calculate the threshold value regarding financial statements such as the nonperforming loan ratio. Results indicate that the banking network financial statements must be restructured due to exogenous shocks. Also, in the recession periods of the year 2011 fourth period and 2012 first period, the recession has reached the banking network with lag and banks have been able to change the return on assets ratio regimes neither in the year 2011 nor in the beginning months of the year 2012. Furthermore, the banks have started a contracting policy in providing loans. As time passes, yields and the performing loans depict the fact that yields on assets as profit indicators are increased unless the interest earning and different periods of time changes are also augmented. Going beyond the critical threshold, generating loans will be likely to drive non-performing loans since these loans are not going to be reimbursed. Banks will have to extend their loans to new loan contracts to consider them as performing which will lead to identification of fake profits in their statements. Key words: Financial Statement restructuring, Nonlinear Estimation, Threshold value JEL Classification: E21, G21, L2

The evidence of the recent years in the banking network of Iran indicates the increasing trend of nonperforming loans each year; thus, the main objective of the current study is to examine the impact of bank specific factors, esp. capital adequacy ratio on the NPLs. Six years dynamic panel data (2007-2012) of 19 banks are applied to scrutinize the relationship between capital adequacy ratio as well as other determinants and the NPLs. Applying correlation and regression analysis shows that the research model which has been utilized is of decent statistical qualification. Results emphasize that banks should control and amend their credit advancement policy with respect to factors influencing the NPLs to have lower non-performing loan ratio and should take into account their risk weighted assets and riskiness of their loan portfolio before they commence lending. In advance of lending to high risky projects and to low quality borrowers, banks should pay attention to the interests of both stakeholders and banks as well as they should consider the riskiness level of their loan portfolio to provide the accurate information relating to their performance because of the probability of high risk project failure which might evidently lead to the growth in NPLs. JEL Classification: C21, G23, G32